A framework for evaluating epidemic forecasts

A framework for evaluating epidemic forecasts

BACKGROUND Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative methods vs. generative methods, and so on. In some of the more popular comparative methods, researchers compare observed epidemiological data from the early stages...

Evaluating density forecasts: a comment

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts

The performance of techniques for evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet as well understood as their univariate counterparts. This paper aims to evaluate the efficacy of a range of traditional statistical-based methods for multivariate forecast evaluation together with methods based on underlying considerations of economic theory. It is found that statistical-based methods, or...

Evaluating Long–Horizon Forecasts

This paper examines the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to predictions from nested long-horizon regression models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of a set of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing, showing that the tests have non-standard distributions that depend on the parameters of the data-generati...

Hypothesis Tests for Evaluating Numerical Precipitation Forecasts

When evaluating differences between competing precipitation forecasts, formal hypothesis testing is rarely performed. This may be due to the difficulty in applying common tests given the spatial correlation of and nonnormality of errors. Possible ways around these difficulties are explored here. Two datasets of precipitation forecasts are evaluated, a set of two competing gridded precipitation ...